Wednesday, December 14, 2016

The Romo or Dak QB controversy is back

Photo from cowboyswire.usatoday.com
Things have been going great for the Dallas Cowboys -- especially on Nov. 14 when Tony Romo held a press conference to address the media regarding his status on the team.
Romo conceded the starting job to rookie Dak Prescott with the intent that it would end the debate on who should start once Romo was healthy.
It actually worked too (for the most part).
Then the New York Giants beat the Cowboys 10-7 on Sunday Night Football to sweep them for the season series, and the "who should start" debate was reopened just enough to stir things up again.
And owner Jerry Jones is probably most to blame when he went on a Dallas radio station to talk about the starting quarterback situation.
"I don't have a definition for it, but you'll know it when you see it," Jones said. "It's kind of like a definition I heard one time of another issue trying to define a negative topic, and they said, 'I don't know how to say it, but it's just something that when you see it, you know it's there.' We'll see it.
Only one person on earth knows what that means.
Certainly, Prescott has impressed and surprised throughout the season, but the last two weeks have led to the gossip emerging once again.
The Cowboys have scored 17 and seven points in the last two games, have failed to get 300 yards total offense and are an abysmal 2-for-24 on third down conversions. Dallas also has five turnovers during that stretch while only committing seven turnovers in the previous 11 games.
Something is wrong, but we can't define it... so let's take a look at the numbers.

Photo from si.com
The Prescott sample size is only 13 games, but to give a more representative sample of Romo, we will use averages from 2010 (since age 30) and statistics from 2014 -- the year when former Cowboy running back DeMarco Murray was having a season very much like rookie Ezekiel Elliot's.
Prescott's yards per attempt is at 7.9, which is good for fourth among qualified quarterbacks. Romo is at 7.7 which would be tied for sixth, but in 2014 Romo was at 8.5.
Prescott's QBR is at 82.8 which is third-best in the league and trumps (sorry for the lack of a better verb) Romo's 63.9 dating back to 2010, but in 2014 Romo had a career-best 83.6.
Touchdown and interception percentage can show if a quarterback is not just scoring efficiently, but how careful he is with every pass attempt. Prescott's touchdown and interception percentages are 5.1 (ranked 9th) and 1.0 (tied for fourth), while Romo's six-season average is 5.7 and 2.5 (7.8 and 2.1 in 2014).
The numbers show that Prescott is a quality starting quarterback in the league and in comparison to Romo's. But the only thing we have for Romo is the "what if" question.

Photo from amarillo.com
When you look at the more commonly-used statistical categories like completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio and passer rating they still tell a story, but can be misleading.
The NFL seems to be moving into a passing philosophy that has affected the dynamic plays fans love to see. More teams are using short passes and checkdowns at a higher frequency than years past.
Prescott's completion percentage (65.8), touchdown-to-interception ratio (5:1) and passer rating (102.7) would lead one to think he is ripping through opposing defenses. In reality, the Cowboys just don't dial up the risky plays they did with Romo, and perhaps we are starting to see why.
Prescott is getting a simple gameplan that can be disrupted with pressure. Romo was allowed to take shots down the field, and often could deliver gains of 20-plus yards. The time needed to let those routes develop could also lead to more sacks.
Since 2010, Romo was sacked on six percent of dropbacks (6.3 in 2014) while Prescott's is five percent. Now, if Prescott is not taking as many chances downfield why is he still getting sacked five percent of the time Dallas is throwing the ball?


It's an interesting thought, but what would you want to trade off; a dynamic offense or an efficient and careful one? It seems as if the Cowboys can't have both.
Apparently, this topic will not go away, and if the Cowboys continue to struggle offensively (or lose) the noise will get louder.
Head coach Jason Garrett will not be able to ignore them if it does happen, and Romo will be ready if need be.
And Jerry will be smiling down from his private suite.

Photo from quotesgram.com

*All stats were found using pro-football-reference.com, the Jerry Jones quote was found in a foxsports.com article (link posted below), all images were credited from the websites they were found and the ESPN First Take video was found from YoutTube.com.

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/dallas-cowboys-jerry-jones-dak-prescott-comments-radio-interview-tony-romo-quarterback-starter-121316

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Penn State isn't College Football Playoff worthy

Photo from usatoday.com
The College Football Playoff is approaching, and the playoff committee announced their top four seeds of the championship tournament this past Sunday.
Undefeated (and defending champion) Alabama leads the way as the No. 1 seed followed by No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Washington.
This is year three for the championship playoff format which replaced the controversial Bowl Championship Series. The unfortunate problem is that the playoff system has its own controversy.
Four teams get a chance to play for the national championship, and the teams on the outside looking in spend a few days publicly voicing their displeasure with the bracket.
The committee's job is to get the four best teams in college football, and it is a difficult job. Imagine it as the sports equivalent of the Bachelor's (or Bachelorette's) final episodes to narrow it down to the last one standing.
Alabama has proven to be the best in the nation despite what many would say has been a down year for the Southeastern Conference.
Eight of their 13 victories were against top-20 ranked opponents with four of them on the road. Alabama's margin of victory was 24.3 points in those eight wins.
The Crimson Tide arguably have the best defense in the country. Only two other teams allowed fewer yards, and none gave up fewer points.
Offensively, Alabama is 15th in total yards and 13th in points scored.
Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts is a player to watch, but the defense steals the show and is led by senior lineman Jonathan Allen.
Head coach Nick Saban has the cream of the crop.

Rich Barnes / USA Today Sports
The "snub" that got the Internet buzzing involved Penn State.
Their résumé had many arguing a playoff spot in their favor, but to reiterate the committee must select four of the best teams. Penn State is not one of them.
Head coach James Franklin led this team to a Big 10 conference championship, but they are certainly not one of the four best teams in the country right now (and never have been at any point of this season).
If this were the Bachelor, Penn State would be the contestant that slipped through the cracks just because they were at the right place at the right time. That is hardly a quality of a champion -- much less a championship contender.
But to be fair, let's review said résumé. Penn State is 11-2, a power-5 conference champion and have notable wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin (Big 10 championship game).
Penn State's flaws are much more noticeable than their accomplishments though.
Their 42-39 loss to unranked Pitt is a big blemish, and losing to Michigan by 39 points is even worse. Historically, no team with a 30+ point loss has competed for a national championship.
Plus, the Nittany Lions only rank 25th in points scored and are not even in the top 30 for total offense, total defense and points allowed.
Penn State was so under the radar, it's as if they wore Harry Potter's cloak of invisibility.

Photo from si.com
At least Alabama has Hurts to go with Saban.
Clemson has Heisman hopeful Deshaun Watson (pictured above) and head coach Dabo Swinney.
Ohio State has J.T. Barrett and head coach Urban Meyer with his multiple championships.
And even Washington has a Heisman candidate of their own in Jake Browning paired with an offensively-creative head coach Chris Peterson (formerly of Boise State).
Penn State lacks a current level of relevant prestige that their respective counterparts have.
When you look at notable wins, Clemson (the Atlantic Coast Conference champions) has three over ranked opponents to Penn State's two. Ohio State and Washington (Pac-12 champions) each have four.
Margin of victory can also be used to indicate which teams stand above the rest.
Ohio State's four quality wins (Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan) were by an average of 22.5 points. Washington beat four top-five Pac-12 teams (Stanford, Utah, Washington State and Colorado) -- all ranked -- by an average of 26 points.
Penn State's margin of victory from their 11 wins was 19.5 points. Not impressive by any stretch.
Even Michigan has more quality wins (Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin) with a 34.6 point margin of victory.
And that's just comparing the wins.

Photo from fansided.com
Ohio State's one loss was on the road against the eventual conference champions, and was only by three points.
Clemson's home loss to Pitt was a devastating one at the time -- and looks bad to a certain degree -- but was only by one point.
Washington lost at home by 13 to a ranked USC, but that loss has a little value since some experts recently have touted the Trojans as better than their record and rank indicate.
Clemson, Ohio State and Washington's single losses look better than the two losses Penn State has.
And Michigan's two losses were both one-possession games, and both were on the road.
I would even give the tiebreaker to Michigan because at least the loss to Iowa is more acceptable than Penn State's loss to Pitt. Iowa was an preseason favorite to contend for the Big 10, but hardly anybody ever expects Pitt to win their conference.
In the end, the four teams in the tournament (and arguably Michigan) check off more boxes than Penn State does -- especially using the eye test.
Penn State just doesn't have enough to be that finalist so no Bachelor rose for them, but they are smelling Pasadena roses at least.
Nonetheless, the committee did what is expected of them; get the four best teams in the College Football Playoff.



*all stats were found at espn.go.com and foxsports.com.