The 2015 NBA Finals begin on June 5, and the two teams squaring off for the championship are the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
It is a billing that pits the team with the best record of the regular season and 2015 MVP against LeBron James; arguably the best player in the world.
The Warriors have been a historically great team and join nine other teams in NBA history to have won at least 67 regular season games. Of those nine teams, seven went on to win the championship.
Golden State also has another statistic that points in their favor; according to ESPN staff writer Tom Haberstroh, there have been eight teams that outscored their regular season opponents by at least 10 points per game. Seven of those eight teams went on to win the title, and team No. 8 lost to the champions who also outscored regular season opponents by 10 points per game. Golden State has outscored their regular season opponents by 10 points per game for 2014-15.
The Warriors were the No. 1 ranked team in defensive efficiency, but since the playoffs began have slid to fourth; conceivably because of their playoff opponents. Golden State had to go through the New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets in succession.
Golden State is led by league MVP Stephen Curry, and his success there has transitioned to the playoffs. Curry is averaging 29.2 points, 6.4 assists per game and has made 73 3-pointers at a 43.7 percent clip. Second to Curry in that category is his own teammate shooting guard Klay Thompson with 45 made 3-pointers.
Second-year forward Draymond Green was the 2014-15 NBA Defensive Player of the Year runner-up and has been the Warriors best player defensively. Green also averages a double double with 14.0 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.
The aforementioned Thompson is also part of the consistent production the Warriors rely on as he has scored 17.4 points per game and is shooting 42.5 percent from 3-point range. Thompson suffered a concussion in game six versus the Rockets and is listed as day-to-day. First-year head coach Steve Kerr expects Thompson to be ready for game one on Thursday.
The Cavaliers are led by superstar and four-time MVP LeBron James who has put up MVP-like
numbers this postseason with averages of 27.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game.
Despite those numbers, James is experiencing his lowest field goal percentage (42.8 percent) since 2007-08 (41.1 percent). James is not amongst the league's best 3-point shooters, but he did shoot 40.7 and 37.5 percent in the last two playoff seasons. In 2014-15, James has a career-worst 17.6 percent from 3-point range.
In this postseason, the Cavaliers are averaging 101.4 points per game (the Warriors average 104.3), and they outrebound their opponents by 6.5 rebounds per game.
Cleveland outranks Golden State in the playoffs at defensive efficiency as the No. 3 team in that statistical category, and allow a playoff-best 92.6 points per game (compared to Golden State's 96.3).
The Cavaliers had to go through the Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks to get to the finals, and injuries have been an issue for them. Forward Kevin Love was lost for the remainder of the playoffs with a torn labrum in his shoulder in the series with the Celtics.
Kyrie Irving is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury that has affected him since game six versus the Bulls. In the Eastern Conference Finals against the Hawks, Irving missed games two and three, but did play 22 minutes in game four. Irving told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer that he is feeling good after some rest.
Veteran guard J.R. Smith has experienced some success since being traded to Cleveland, and has shot 39.6 percent from 3-point range.
Smith also is coming off of a productive conference finals as he scored 28, 17 and 18 points in games one, three and four. Plus, Smith had two double doubles in consecutive games that helped sweep the Hawks. Smith did shoot 47 percent in 3-pointers for the series as well.
Forward Tristan Thompson has filled in for the injured Love and has given the Cavaliers a rebounding presence. In his last five games, Thompson is averaging a double double and 12.2 rebounds.
Analysis: The two teams split the regular season series, but the factors one should look for in the series will be Golden State's health compared to Cleveland's, the Warrior's ability to share the ball, offensive efficiency, physical play and coaching.
The injuries have already been reported earlier, but the Cavaliers are facing a bigger question of health. Irving's knee will be monitored closely and even though he will have plenty of rest going into game one, the question is if Irving will be 100 percent.
Golden State is not affected as much by Thompson's concussion as Cleveland is by Irving's knee. This places more pressure on James to carry the entire offense, and if he is not going to be the one making big shots, Smith better be ready to do so.
The Warriors have been an unselfish team all season long as they led the regular season in assists with 27.4 per game.
The concern one should have for the Cavaliers is their lack of ball movement as they led the league in isolation plays per game with 12.1.
Credit Kerr's and assistant Alvin Gentry's (who was hired for the Pelicans job, but will remain with the Warriors until season's end) philosophy which is to first stretch the defense, make the extra pass to stretch even more and find an open shooter for a high-percentage shot -- whether it is a 3-pointer or in the paint.
On the other hand, Cavaliers head coach David Blatt appears to have been undercut by James' lack of faith in Blatt's system. Early in the season it was evident the team struggled to implement Blatt's offense with the team.
It was obvious the team went from an actual system to playing isolation basketball, which to James' credit did work since it allowed him to control who goes where and who shoots when the time comes.
Offensive efficiency was clearly stated in the report with previous statistics. This is perhaps the least efficient year in James' career as he has taken it upon himself to make all of the decisions and that has resulted in less drives to the basket compared to years past.
Can Smith continue to shoot as well as he has in this postseason? It is unlikely as he does have the frequent game where once he misses his first few attempts he begins to shoot even more in hopes of getting hot. A regression to the mean is logical and expected.
Curry has been excellent and consistent throughout the entire regular and postseason -- yes every player has a bad game from time to time -- but Cleveland will approach him the same way Memphis did. Keep a body on Curry, give him as little space as possible and be physical (get to that later).
Only once did Curry shoot at least 50 percent from the field, and the Grizzlies held Curry to 40.6 percent in 3-pointers; better than any of the Warriors' playoff opponents this year.
Also expect the Cavaliers to throw a different defender at Curry just to mix things up. That rotation of defenders that should include defensive specialist Iman Shumpert, James, Matthew Dellavedova and maybe Irving and Smith.
Expect Cleveland to be very physical with Golden State every possession, minute, quarter and game. That is precisely what the Cavaliers have played like since their battle with the Bulls.
Dellavedova has emerged as someone to monitor with his defensive play and energy that many say are just hustle plays to borderline or downright dirty. Dellavedova started getting attention when he had an encounter with Chicago's Taj Gibson -- which got Gibson ejected. In the series with the Hawks, there were some encounters involving the injury of guard Kyle Korver and forward Al Horford.
Just something to keep an eye on because expect it to happen and possibly that's where Green's role is important. Green is the Warriors' enforcer and if he sees anything he does not like from Dellavedova, those two may have an altercation. It is certain the officials are aware of this potential chemistry fire, but how they handle it will be the key to setting the tempo of the series, much less a game.
Finally, the coaching matchup will definitely be something to take a look at as both teams have NBA rookie head coaches. Kerr took a Golden State team that had not enjoyed this kind of success under his predecessor Mark Jackson. Kerr brought in Gentry to utilize the fast-pace offense based off of Mike D'Antoni's (Gentry was an assistant under D'Antoni with the Phoenix Suns).
The results were the frenetic pace you have seen up to this day which creates more turnovers, but overall this Warriors team is tailor-made for this system.
Blatt could be a liability to the Cavaliers if he tries to do too much to counter with Kerr. It is imperative a team that plans to win make some adjustments, but it is presumed that James will be the one who makes the necessary adjustments and Blatt can just look like he is coaching. That may be unfair to a Cavaliers fan or Blatt fan, yet it is the reality. James does not believe in Blatt's system and took over the team by himself.
Prediction: I expect the Warriors to win this series in five games, but in their four victories they should be able to win by double digits in three. Golden State should have a desire to close the series out as soon as possible, and I cannot imagine the Warriors would want to clinch the championship in Cleveland when they could celebrate that 40-year drought on their own homecourt. Why even let it come to a game seven when all that does is create the high-pressure do-or-die mentality? This Warriors team should go down as one of the best championship teams in the history of the NBA. Fans may not treat them that way, but historians will and that is what really matters in creating the narrative of an all-time great team.
Credits: Stephen Curry, James Harden and Josh Smith photo courtesy of gospelherald.com. LeBron James and DeMarre Carroll photo courtesy of cavaliersnation.com. Curry and James photo courtesy of hoopsaddict.com. All statistics were used from espn.com, basketball-reference.com and landofbasketball.com.
