Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Cam Newton is not a top MVP candidate yet

                                                                                                     Photo by AP    
                                          Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been
                                          mentioned in the race for league MVP as his team
                                          continues to win.

     As the season has reached its halfway point, The Panthers remain one of the league's unbeaten teams at 7-0, and quarterback Cam Newton has been thrown into the MVP debate.
     Certainly, Newton has improved since his rookie season from five years ago, but league MVP may be a conversation people are only including his name in because Carolina is still undefeated. When you hear various sports media personalities -- like ESPN First Take's Stephen A. Smith -- or people on social media praise Newton, the first qualifier that is cited is the team's record. The second is his ability to be an effective rusher.
     Those are things that are factual, but for a league MVP there needs to be more, and Newton does not have enough to win that award right now unless he improves in these statistical categories:
   
     No. 1 - Total QBR (not to be confused with passer rating)
     Newton ranks 26th (46.9) in this category among qualified starting quarterbacks, but here are just a few of the quarterbacks ranked ahead of him: Ryan Fitzpatrick (78.4), Brian Hoyer (69.4), Blake Bortles (61.4), Kirk Cousins (58.8), Jameis Winston (58.7), and Colin Kaepernick (47.6) just to name a few. One could argue that Newton has incredible talent (and he does) over this list of quarterbacks ahead of him, but how can an MVP candidate be this bad in QBR? And on another note, only one game did Newton have a QBR over 50.0, and that was in week 3 (86.0).
    (This statistic is one that uses an algorithm that configures how much a quarterback does or does not contribute towards points for their respective team in any given game. Having this low of a QBR in Newton's case is an indicator that he technically is not the one directly involved in scoring points on plays he throws and runs personally. Fortunately, it also factors in if he hands off the ball on plays that score points so in theory this number could actually be lower by removing that from the algorithm.)

     No. 2 - Protecting the ball
     As a quarterback, limiting turnovers is one of the most important responsibilities. Newton currently has 15 total touchdowns (including four rushing), but has turned the ball over 10 times (eight interceptions and two fumbles). Newton has the third highest interception percentage rate in the league (among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts) with 3.70 percent of his pass attempts getting intercepted -- only Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck have a higher percentage rates.

     No. 3 - The overall passing game
     Newton leads a Carolina passing game ranked 30th in total yards, and eight teams have less first downs than the Panthers from pass plays. Newton's individual numbers do not put him among the better half of quarterbacks in the league as he is 22nd in yards per attempt (7.05) and 32nd in completion percentage (54.2 percent) -- which also happens to be the worst in his career so far. To be fair, Newton's teammates have dropped the fifth most passes in the league with 15. Out of the 215 attempts, that comes out to 7 percent of those attempts are drops which is the worst in the league.

     None of this analysis is to prove Newton is not talented or a good quarterback, but rather just an argument that proves he is not an MVP as of now. A better finish to the regular season could change the perception of those who are not on the "Cam for MVP" campaign. Newton is second to Russell Wilson in rushing yards for quarterbacks, but among all rushers Newton is tied for fourth in touchdowns -- which is remarkable. Newton has also shown better leadership this season as that was a criticism in the past from reporters and analysts. Newton has improved, and that is part of the reason why Carolina is 7-0 right now. But Newton also is not the most valuable player in the NFL... yet.

*All statistics were borrowed from ESPN.com, pro-football-reference.com and sportingcharts.com



Sunday, May 31, 2015

NBA Finals preview: Golden State versus Cleveland

    
    The 2015 NBA Finals begin on June 5, and the two teams squaring off for the championship are the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
    It is a billing that pits the team with the best record of the regular season and 2015 MVP against LeBron James; arguably the best player in the world.
    
    The Warriors have been a historically great team and join nine other teams in NBA history to have won at least 67 regular season games. Of those nine teams, seven went on to win the championship.
    Golden State also has another statistic that points in their favor; according to ESPN staff writer Tom Haberstroh, there have been eight teams that outscored their regular season opponents by at least 10 points per game. Seven of those eight teams went on to win the title, and team No. 8 lost to the champions who also outscored regular season opponents by 10 points per game. Golden State has outscored their regular season opponents by 10 points per game for 2014-15.
    The Warriors were the No. 1 ranked team in defensive efficiency, but since the playoffs began have slid to fourth; conceivably because of their playoff opponents. Golden State had to go through the New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets in succession.
    Golden State is led by league MVP Stephen Curry, and his success there has transitioned to the playoffs. Curry is averaging 29.2 points, 6.4 assists per game and has made 73 3-pointers at a 43.7 percent clip. Second to Curry in that category is his own teammate shooting guard Klay Thompson with 45 made 3-pointers.
     Second-year forward Draymond Green was the 2014-15 NBA Defensive Player of the Year runner-up and has been the Warriors best player defensively. Green also averages a double double with 14.0 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.
    The aforementioned Thompson is also part of the consistent production the Warriors rely on as he has scored 17.4 points per game and is shooting 42.5 percent from 3-point range. Thompson suffered a concussion in game six versus the Rockets and is listed as day-to-day. First-year head coach Steve Kerr expects Thompson to be ready for game one on Thursday.


    The Cavaliers are led by superstar and four-time MVP LeBron James who has put up MVP-like
numbers this postseason with averages of 27.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game.
    Despite those numbers, James is experiencing his lowest field goal percentage (42.8 percent) since 2007-08 (41.1 percent). James is not amongst the league's best 3-point shooters, but he did shoot 40.7 and 37.5 percent in the last two playoff seasons. In 2014-15, James has a career-worst 17.6 percent from 3-point range.
    In this postseason, the Cavaliers are averaging 101.4 points per game (the Warriors average 104.3), and they outrebound their opponents by 6.5 rebounds per game.
    Cleveland outranks Golden State in the playoffs at defensive efficiency as the No. 3 team in that statistical category, and allow a playoff-best 92.6 points per game (compared to Golden State's 96.3).
    The Cavaliers had to go through the Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks to get to the finals, and injuries have been an issue for them. Forward Kevin Love was lost for the remainder of the playoffs with a torn labrum in his shoulder in the series with the Celtics.
    Kyrie Irving is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury that has affected him since game six versus the Bulls. In the Eastern Conference Finals against the Hawks, Irving missed games two and three, but did play 22 minutes in game four. Irving told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer that he is feeling good after some rest.
    Veteran guard J.R. Smith has experienced some success since being traded to Cleveland, and has shot 39.6 percent from 3-point range. 
    Smith also is coming off of a productive conference finals as he scored 28, 17 and 18 points in games one, three and four. Plus, Smith had two double doubles in consecutive games that helped sweep the Hawks. Smith did shoot 47 percent in 3-pointers for the series as well.
    Forward Tristan Thompson has filled in for the injured Love and has given the Cavaliers a rebounding presence. In his last five games, Thompson is averaging a double double and 12.2 rebounds.


    Analysis: The two teams split the regular season series, but the factors one should look for in the series will be Golden State's health compared to Cleveland's, the Warrior's ability to share the ball, offensive efficiency, physical play and coaching.
    The injuries have already been reported earlier, but the Cavaliers are facing a bigger question of health. Irving's knee will be monitored closely and even though he will have plenty of rest going into game one, the question is if Irving will be 100 percent.
    Golden State is not affected as much by Thompson's concussion as Cleveland is by Irving's knee. This places more pressure on James to carry the entire offense, and if he is not going to be the one making big shots, Smith better be ready to do so.
    The Warriors have been an unselfish team all season long as they led the regular season in assists with 27.4 per game. 
    The concern one should have for the Cavaliers is their lack of ball movement as they led the league in isolation plays per game with 12.1.
    Credit Kerr's and assistant Alvin Gentry's (who was hired for the Pelicans job, but will remain with the Warriors until season's end) philosophy which is to first stretch the defense, make the extra pass to stretch even more and find an open shooter for a high-percentage shot -- whether it is a 3-pointer or in the paint.
    On the other hand, Cavaliers head coach David Blatt appears to have been undercut by James' lack of faith in Blatt's system. Early in the season it was evident the team struggled to implement Blatt's offense with the team.
    It was obvious the team went from an actual system to playing isolation basketball, which to James' credit did work since it allowed him to control who goes where and who shoots when the time comes.
    Offensive efficiency was clearly stated in the report with previous statistics. This is perhaps the least efficient year in James' career as he has taken it upon himself to make all of the decisions and that has resulted in less drives to the basket compared to years past.
    Can Smith continue to shoot as well as he has in this postseason? It is unlikely as he does have the frequent game where once he misses his first few attempts he begins to shoot even more in hopes of getting hot. A regression to the mean is logical and expected.
    Curry has been excellent and consistent throughout the entire regular and postseason -- yes every player has a bad game from time to time -- but Cleveland will approach him the same way Memphis did. Keep a body on Curry, give him as little space as possible and be physical (get to that later).
    Only once did Curry shoot at least 50 percent from the field, and the Grizzlies held Curry to 40.6 percent in 3-pointers; better than any of the Warriors' playoff opponents this year.
    Also expect the Cavaliers to throw a different defender at Curry just to mix things up. That rotation of defenders that should include defensive specialist Iman Shumpert, James, Matthew Dellavedova and maybe Irving and Smith.
    Expect Cleveland to be very physical with Golden State every possession, minute, quarter and game. That is precisely what the Cavaliers have played like since their battle with the Bulls.
    Dellavedova has emerged as someone to monitor with his defensive play and energy that many say are just hustle plays to borderline or downright dirty. Dellavedova started getting attention when he had an encounter with Chicago's Taj Gibson -- which got Gibson ejected. In the series with the Hawks, there were some encounters involving the injury of guard Kyle Korver and forward Al Horford.
    Just something to keep an eye on because expect it to happen and possibly that's where Green's role is important. Green is the Warriors' enforcer and if he sees anything he does not like from Dellavedova, those two may have an altercation. It is certain the officials are aware of this potential chemistry fire, but how they handle it will be the key to setting the tempo of the series, much less a game.
    Finally, the coaching matchup will definitely be something to take a look at as both teams have NBA rookie head coaches. Kerr took a Golden State team that had not enjoyed this kind of success under his predecessor Mark Jackson. Kerr brought in Gentry to utilize the fast-pace offense based off of Mike D'Antoni's (Gentry was an assistant under D'Antoni with the Phoenix Suns).
    The results were the frenetic pace you have seen up to this day which creates more turnovers, but overall this Warriors team is tailor-made for this system.
    Blatt could be a liability to the Cavaliers if he tries to do too much to counter with Kerr. It is imperative a team that plans to win make some adjustments, but it is presumed that James will be the one who makes the necessary adjustments and Blatt can just look like he is coaching. That may be unfair to a Cavaliers fan or Blatt fan, yet it is the reality. James does not believe in Blatt's system and took over the team by himself.
    
    Prediction: I expect the Warriors to win this series in five games, but in their four victories they should be able to win by double digits in three. Golden State should have a desire to close the series out as soon as possible, and I cannot imagine the Warriors would want to clinch the championship in Cleveland when they could celebrate that 40-year drought on their own homecourt. Why even let it come to a game seven when all that does is create the high-pressure do-or-die mentality? This Warriors team should go down as one of the best championship teams in the history of the NBA. Fans may not treat them that way, but historians will and that is what really matters in creating the narrative of an all-time great team.

Credits: Stephen Curry, James Harden and Josh Smith photo courtesy of gospelherald.com. LeBron James and DeMarre Carroll photo courtesy of cavaliersnation.com. Curry and James photo courtesy of hoopsaddict.com. All statistics were used from espn.com, basketball-reference.com and landofbasketball.com.
    
    
    
    









Saturday, May 16, 2015

Golovkin scores his 20th consecutive KO in the sixth


     Gennady Golovkin defeated challenger Willie Monroe Jr. by technical knockout in the sixth round to register his 20th consecutive knockout victory to defend his WBA, IBO and WBC  middleweight titles.
     It would not be a competitive fight, and Golovkin did at times hold himself back allowing fans to see if Monroe would be a threat to the undefeated champion's 14th title defense.
     Golovkin knocked Monroe down twice in the second round -- both times with powerful left hooks -- and set the tone early after an opening round spent mostly on developing a feel for the pace Monroe potentially was expecting.
     After a third round where Monroe bounced back, he followed it up with a productive fourth by outworking the Kazakhstan native by a good enough margin to have scored that round.
     Monroe reverted to his previous strategy (more defense and movement instead of volume punching) in the fifth round and a Golovkin who decided to slow down his production did not take advantage until the sixth round when Monroe was knocked down once again -- but this time by a combination of punches.
     According to CompuBox numbers, Golovkin landed 133 of his 297 punches (116 for power at 49 percent). Monroe, on the other hand, could only manage to land 29 percent of his 305 total punches and 33 percent of his power punch attempts.
     In the post-fight interview with HBO's Max Kellerman, Golovkin thanked his fans with a "present just for you," and some news for those who may have though Monroe was actually controlling the fight for a short stretch of the bout.
     "I show him who's number one, who's champion," said Golovkin.
     Kellerman then asked about the immediate future for champion's plan to attract big-name fighters, and Golovkin was not shy in sharing who the fighters in his crosshairs are.
     "I'm a real champion," said Golovkin, "I want unification (referring to Miguel Cotto)."
     Golovkin also did not rule out Saul "Canelo" Alvarez as a potential opponent in the very near future, but he did make it clear that he wants either Cotto and/or Alvarez before a bout with Andre Ward.

Photo credit: Joe Camporeale / USA Today Sports

All information was gathered from outside media outlets: HBO's World Championship Boxing

Gennady Golovkin versus Willie Monroe Jr. preview

     The boxing purists and casual fight fans have been uniting for a few years now to see middleweight superstar Gennady Golovkin take on all challengers who will risk getting into the ring with him. May 16, 2015 Willie Monroe Jr. will attempt to do what no other professional fighter has been able to do as of yet; defeat Golovkin.
     Tonight's bout between "GGG" and "The Mongoose" will be for Golovkin's WBA (super), IBO and WBC interim middleweight titles at the Forum in Inglewood, Calif. and is scheduled for 12 rounds.
     Golovkin goes into the fight with a 32-0-0 record, 29 victories by way of knockout, and has not had a fight go the distance in nearly seven years (June 21, 2008 versus Amar Amari). Monroe has a record of 19-1-0 with six victories by way of knockout, and his only loss came from Darnell Boone (17-17-3 at the time) on March 29, 2011 by split decision.
     According to Odds Shark, Golovkin is a minus-4500 favorite (meaning one would have to wager $4,500 in order just to win $100), but that does not discourage Monroe's confidence as he described himself as a "slick southpaw" and even likened himself to Floyd Mayweather Jr. with the ability to avoid taking too many punches.
     Monroe will need to rely on that philosophy in order to even have a legitimate chance to compete for rounds as power does not prove to be a tool in his repertoire just by studying previous fights -- let alone by just reviewing his record of wins by knockout. Fans should not expect Monroe to do such a feat as well since Golovkin has not been knocked out in 375 fights as both a professional and an amateur.
     Golovkin's strategy may have some minor tweaks depending on his opponent, but generally he will use a similar fight plan to break down his counterparts. Waste little to no energy, cut off the ring when the opposition attempts to create distance from him, use body shots to slow his opponent down, and occasionally bait the other fighter into throwing a punch that he sets up with a counter and eventually should lead into a combination.
   
     The Prediction: All signs point to Golovkin, and I will predict a knockout -- either clean, technical, or a referee's technical decision -- in the fifth round. It is doubtful that this match with see the 10th round, but if this fight were to go this long it is because Golovkin is trying to build himself into a pay-per-view worthy brand; not because Monroe was able to prolong it.

     Additional notes: the attractive main under card bout is scheduled for 12 rounds and features Nicaraguan sensation Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez versus Mexican challenger Edgar Sosa for Gonzalez's WBC flyweight title. Gonzalez sports a 42-0-0 with 36 victories by way of knockout, and Sosa has a record of 51-8-0. Sosa has 30 wins by way of knockout, and two of his eight losses are by knockout.

Information was gathered from outside media sources: espn.com, ucnlive.com, boxrec.com, and bleacherreaport.com
   

Friday, May 15, 2015

Diamondbacks remove Addison Reed from closer role

    The Arizona Diamondbacks made the decision to go with a closer by committee Friday afternoon after the struggles of Addison Reed have not shown any signs of going away.
    The Diamondbacks currently sit in fourth place with a 15-18 record, and are 6.5 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
    Arizona fans are no strangers to the dramatic ninth innings Reed has experienced since joining the Diamondbacks in 2014, but his 2015 campaign has been concerning, thus the change by first-year manager Chip Hale.
    In the 10.0 innings Reed has pitched so far, he has picked up only two saves to match his two blown saves, has an 0-2 record and has a career-high 7.20 ERA. It is only 33 games into the season, but at some point Hale does need to consider other options to not fall too far behind in the division.
    Perhaps the biggest factor to Reed's inflated ERA is the fact he is allowing runners on base at an alarming rate, and has allowed 19 baserunners (15 hits and four walks) leading to a bloated 1.90 WHIP.
    The move comes at a time when the Diamondbacks will open up a seven-game road trip against the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins -- and both clubs are under .500 -- so finding out if the bullpen has a reliever who can do damage control in the ninth inning is something Hale should experiment with at this time.
    According to Nick Piecoro, the Diamondbacks beat writer for AZ Central Sports, Hale said veteran Brad Ziegler "could be an option for the ninth inning but plans to keep his options open in case Ziegler is needed earlier," via Piecoro's Twitter account.
    Ziegler has experience as a closer when he compiled 13 saves in 2013 after taking over for former Diamondbacks closer J.J. Putz.
    Hale does not expect this to be a permanent solution as he stated the reason for Reed's struggles are mechanical because of a short spring training for the 26-year-old reliever.
    Piecoro also tweeted that Hale can see Reed "returning to closer's role once he gets himself back on track."
    Finally, Piecoro tweeted that Reed accepts the change and said, "There's not one part of me that thinks I've been throwing the ball somewhat well."
    Reed has 103 career saves in his five major-league seasons. Before being traded to Arizona in 2014, Reed spent his first three season with the Chicago White Sox.

Information was gathered using outside media sources: espn.com, arizonasports.com, twitter.com, baseball-reference.com, and azcentral.com.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Deflate-Gate accusation draws more denials from Patriots

Photo courtesy of bostonglobe.com - New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is facing backlash after the NFL's recent findings that the Patriots were using footballs that were under the league's air-pressure requirement in the AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts on Jan. 18.
    The recent developments of the Deflate-Gate investigation have called for some answers from the New England Patriots since the NFL confirmed that 11 of the 12 footballs used by New England were approximately 2 pounds per square inch (PSI) below the league requirement.
    Since the confirmation, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has denied any knowledge of the underinflated footballs, and mentioned that maybe the team's starting quarterback, Tom Brady, may have the answers the media and the league seeks.
    The league rule states that no footballs will be altered once they are approved, and if tampered with, the penalty is a $25,000 fine and possibly further punishment.
    According to WEEI.com, a source informed the website that the Patriots had a total of 24 footballs -- 12 of which were backups -- and they used 12 additional footballs for the second half of the AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts after the original dozen did not meet the league requirement.
    Belichick indicated that kickers and quarterbacks have certain preferences about the footballs they use on the field, and if the questions are regarding New England's equipment, maybe the questions should be directed to Brady.
    According to New England's 14-year head coach, Brady can address his personal preferences about the footballs in better detail than he can.
    Belichick also declared his shock that the footballs did not meet the league standard for air-pressure, and stated that he had no explanation for it.
    Brady will have a press conference at 4 p.m. EST according to the team.
    In a 2011 interview with WEEI radio, Brady said he prefers underinflated balls.
    Belichick has a history of breaking league rules when he was fined $500,000 in 2007 for the infamous Spygate incident involving an assistant who spied on the New York Jets for defensive signals.
    The Patriots will meet the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 49 for a 6:30 p.m. EST kickoff on Feb. 1 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.